A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."